Can't wait for perfect model to prepare for environmental change

Posted August 16, 2006 in News

A study recently appeared in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences which considers the projections from 52 different climate models assessing the impact from climate-induced changes to the world's key ecosystems.

The research is an important step in quantifying the physically plausible futures from particular levels of global warming. Considering such scenarios could help motivate decision makers to seek to reduce the short-term impacts of environmental negligence. Similarly, such models can help agencies develop scenarios of probable impacts to plan resources to meet disasters e.g. escalated bush fire or flooding risks and need for evacuation plans or fire fighting technology.

The study has merit because it compiles the works from 52 different stimulations, so where there are consistent patterns it is likely that a robust model as been developed (particularly if the models are proven to work when rehearsed against previously identified scenarios). As Dr Richard Betts comments: "Of course it is risky to make these projections... but we have to make decisions on climate change now... if we wait for hte perfect model we will be too late."

Source: BBC News

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